West Virginia set to join Big 12 in July
NCAA Football Betting Lines
02/14/2012 - Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - West Virginia and the Big East have agreed to settle their lawsuits, enabling the university to leave the conference and join the Big 12 in July.
West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck would not disclose terms of the settlement, but said in the school's release that no state or taxpayer funds, tuition or academic support money would be used.
The Charleston Daily Mail had reported last week that the Big East will receive about $20 million in exchange for allowing West Virginia to leave prior to the 27-month notification period as required by the conference's bylaws. The paper had indicated that West Virginia would pay $11 million with the Big 12 schools combining to supplement the remainder of the financial transaction.
"This closes a chapter and opens a new one filled with exciting possibilities for WVU's future," Luck said. "I've heard from Mountaineer fans across the country who have made it very clear that they are proud and honored to be heading into the Big 12."
West Virginia announced its decision to defect from the Big East and join the Big 12 in October, making the move about a month after both Syracuse and Pittsburgh announced its departures to the ACC. While Syracuse and Pittsburgh both decided not to challenge the Big East's departure bylaw, West Virginia did.
In filing a lawsuit against the Big East, West Virginia had argued that it wanted to leave immediately because no such 27-month period of notification was needed for TCU, which had agreed to join the Big East for the start of the 2012-13 year and instead decided to join the Big 12.
The Big East countersued in Rhode Island, saying the 27-month rule did not apply to TCU because it had not yet participated in conference play.
While the legal process was playing out, the Big 12 and Big East were unable to finalize football schedules for 2012. The settlement now allows the Big 12 to remain with 10 members, as TCU and West Virginia will replace the outgoing Missouri and Texas A&M -- both departing for the SEC.
"Our membership in the Big 12 offers WVU significant advantages," Luck added. "The Big 12 is a strong and vibrant conference academically and athletically. We look forward to the potential academic and athletic partnerships and financial opportunities that membership in the Big 12 offers."
The Big East will now have just seven schools for football in 2012, unless one of the incoming members announced in its expansion plans can be persuaded to join early.
The new schools slated to join the league -- at different intervals -- are Memphis, Central Florida, SMU and Houston as full members and Boise State, San Diego State and Navy for football only.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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